The Cubs' NL Wild Card Cushion Is Almost Gone

Earlier this month the Chicago Cubs were six and a half games clear of the next National League wild-card club. That is the kind of lead that lets a front office talk about catching Milwaukee in the Central and still sleep. It is not the lead they have now.

Philadelphia went 9-1 over its last ten and ran a nine-game winning streak into late August. The gap over the Phillies got down to two games entering Monday. Then Kevin Gausman threw seven scoreless at Chase Field, Seattle snapped that Philly streak, and Chicago woke up Tuesday three games up on the second wild-card club and five up on the last line. The cushion is not gone. The comfortable version of it is.

If the season ended today, the Cubs would host a wild-card series. That is the actual prize in this race, not a participation ribbon. A month ago that hosting spot looked like a lock. It does not anymore.

The board after Monday

Division winners sit above this table: Milwaukee at 81-50, the Dodgers at 80-51, and the Braves at 76-55. Chicago is 5 1/2 back in the Central with 30 games left. The wild-card picture is the one that actually moved in two weeks.

See live MLB standings on AthX for division records, games back, and season fantasy points from AthX Engine.

Philadelphia ate the gap in two weeks

The Phillies were not in this conversation in early August. Then they won nine straight, climbed into sole possession of the second wild-card spot, and turned a Cubs lead that used to look like October insurance into a real race.

Monday night in Seattle ended the streak. Cal Raleigh hit three home runs, the Mariners won 9-2, and Zack Wheeler was charged with a season-high eight runs. One ugly road loss does not unwind 9-1. Philadelphia is still two games clear of the last wild-card line and three behind Chicago. The Braves have to keep watching the East, too. A club that just went 9-1 is not a visitor you pencil into the six-seed and forget.

That is the take. The Cubs are still first. The Phillies made first feel expensive.

Gausman, then a 19-2, then seven scoreless

Chicago's last ten are 5-5, not a collapse and not a surge. The pitching wobbled after the deadline. Gausman's Cubs debut on Aug. 7 was the outing they bought him for: seven innings, two runs, a 6-4 win in Kansas City. Six days later in Washington he was gone after 4 2/3 and six earned in a 7-0 loss. That is start No. 2 in Cubbie blue, and it looked like the version Toronto was willing to deal.

Monday was start No. 4, and it was the one Chicago needed. Gausman threw seven scoreless, three hits, one walk, six strikeouts. Sixty-two of his 94 pitches were four-seamers. Merrill Kelly took the loss for Arizona. The Cubs won 7-0, gained a half-game on idle Milwaukee, and pushed the wild-card math back in their favor for a night. Read the full recap.

The offense has been the floor when the rotation has not. Sunday in Seattle was the extreme version. Pete Crow-Armstrong hit his 33rd homer and stole his 32nd base in a 19-2 rout, the first Cub with consecutive 30-30 seasons. Ian Happ and Pedro Ramirez each hit grand slams. Aaron Civale threw four scoreless after Shota Imanaga lasted two innings.

Craig Counsell called Civale the story of the game. Civale, asked about the bullpen's rhythm, kept it simpler: "There's just a lot of trust with what each of us do. There's a lot of confidence that's being instilled. Then, just situations of when guys are being used, how they're being used, it all plays really well. It's just taking the ball whenever you're called upon."

One 19-2 does not fix a 5-5 stretch. It does remind the clubs chasing Chicago that this lineup can still erase a series in an afternoon. Sunday's recap is here.

The tiebreaker Chicago already banked

Here is the part of the race that does not show in the games-back column.

MLB killed Game 163 when it went to a 12-team playoff in 2022. Ties for a wild-card spot, or for seeding among clubs that already have a spot, are settled on paper. Head-to-head record is first. Intradivision record is next, even if the two clubs do not share a division.

The Cubs already own that first test against the three clubs most likely to meet them there. They went 6-1 against Philadelphia. They went 5-1 against San Diego. Monday's 7-0 in Phoenix clinched the season series against Arizona. If September ends in a tie with any of those three, Chicago does not need a 163rd game. It already played it, spread across April, May, June, and one night in the desert.

That is not a magic extra win in the standings. It is an extra game the other club has to make up if the records land even. The Phillies are three games back of the Cubs in the table and would need to fully pass them to flip the hosting seed, because a dead heat goes to Chicago. Same idea for the Padres and Diamondbacks further down.

San Diego, Arizona, and the long shots

The Padres still hold the last spot after a 6-4 last ten. They swept Minnesota over the weekend, then dropped a 3-2, 12-inning game to the Pirates on Monday at Petco. Nick Gonzales singled home the winner. That is a costly extra-inning loss when Arizona is two games behind you.

San Diego's deadline move was the rotation. Casey Mize came over from Detroit on Aug. 3 with Robbie Ray already in from San Francisco. Mize threw six scoreless for his first Padres win in Cleveland on Aug. 16. Those innings are why San Diego is still in the third slot instead of watching the board from four back. The staff has to keep covering for a lineup that just lost a 12-inning game it needed.

Arizona is the club with the shortest road. Two games out, 5-5 in its last ten, and it just took a 7-0 from the Cubs in its own park. Kelly is the name that has to hold the rotation together while the D-backs try to climb over San Diego without falling into Miami. The season series against Chicago is already gone. A tie with the Cubs would not save them. A tie with the Padres is a different math problem, and it is the one they actually have to win on the field first.

The Marlins sit four games behind the last wild-card spot, with Arizona still in front of them. St. Louis is 66-66, five back. Both have mathematical life. Neither has the last month of a 9-1 club in front of them. If you are drawing the September race as four teams, you are not being cute. You are reading the table.

What AthX Engine is scoring

AthX Engine put Gausman at 27 pitching fantasy points on Monday, the top pitching mark on the slate, with the Cubs at 17 team fantasy points in the shutout. Sunday's 19-2 was a different board: Chicago at 39 team fantasy points, Crow-Armstrong at 12 hitting fantasy points, Civale at 15 pitching fantasy points on the four clean innings.

Those totals measure the box. Share price is what the market will pay, and the two numbers move together without being the same thing. For how that pricing works, see dynamic pricing. The wild-card race is the baseball. The player pages are where the daily scores land.

Thirty games left

Chicago still has the top wild-card seed, the head-to-head edge on the three clubs most likely to catch it, and a center fielder sitting on 33 homers and 32 steals. That is a good August hand. It is not the 6.5-game hand from earlier this month.

Philadelphia already proved it can eat a lead in two weeks. San Diego is one extra-inning loss from handing Arizona a runway. The Cubs get the rest of this series in Phoenix, then a month that will decide whether they host October or visit it. I would still rather be Chicago than anyone else in this table. I would not count on the next 30 games looking like the first 132.

Track the Cubs, Phillies, Padres, and Diamondbacks on the marketplace. Keep the live table on MLB standings.

*Sources: MLB.com wild-card standings; MLB.com on Gausman's seven scoreless; MLB.com on Happ, Crow-Armstrong, and Civale vs. Seattle; ESPN recap, Mariners 9-2; ESPN, Pirates 3-2 in 12; AS USA playoff picture, Aug. 25; MLB.com tiebreaker rules; AthX Engine scoring. Records as of Aug. 25, 2026, after Monday's games. Information only; not financial advice.*