WBC 2026 Quarterfinal Preview: USA vs. Canada
Team USA and Canada meet in a North American quarterfinal on Friday, March 13, at Daikin Park in Houston (8:00 p.m. ET, FOX). The United States advanced as Pool B runner-up despite a stunning 8-6 loss to Italy that left them depending on Italy to beat Mexico—which Italy did, 9-1, behind Vinnie Pasquantino's historic three-homer game. Canada won Pool A with a 3-1 record and a 1.50 team ERA, clinching with a 7-2 victory over Cuba in San Juan. This is the first time Canada has won a WBC pool and the first quarterfinal between the two neighbors since the Classic expanded; Logan Webb is scheduled to start for the USA and Michael Soroka for Canada in a matchup that will decide who moves on to the semifinals in Miami.
How Team USA Got Here
The Americans opened Pool B in Houston with a 15-5 win over Brazil—Aaron Judge hit a two-run homer, Brice Turang had a bases-clearing double—then beat Great Britain 9-1 behind Kyle Schwarber's tiebreaking homer and a five-run fifth. Paul Skenes started the marquee game against Mexico and threw four shutout innings; Aaron Judge homered and threw out a runner at the plate; Roman Anthony (Red Sox prospect) hit a three-run homer. The USA held off Mexico 5-3 in a thriller. Then came Italy: the U.S. led early but Italy rallied and won 8-6, leaving the Americans at 3-1 and in danger of elimination if Mexico beat Italy. Italy's 9-1 win over Mexico—Pasquantino's three homers, Sam Aldegheri and the bullpen dominating—secured both Italy the pool title and the USA the second spot. Manager Mark DeRosa has a roster that combines 65 All-Star selections: Aaron Judge (captain, three-time AL MVP), Bryce Harper (two-time MVP), Paul Goldschmidt (2022 NL MVP), Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson, Corbin Carroll, Cal Raleigh, Will Smith, and more. The rotation features Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal (the 2025 Cy Young winners), Logan Webb, Joe Ryan, and Clayton Kershaw (special appearance after retirement). For the quarterfinal, Logan Webb gets the ball; the bullpen will be full-go behind him.
How Canada Got Here
Canada opened Pool A in San Juan with an 8-2 win over Colombia—Owen Caissie (Marlins prospect) hit a two-run homer that landed in a Canadian flag held by a fan, and Michael Soroka threw three strong innings. They lost to Panama (4-3) and to Puerto Rico (in a tight game that decided pool positioning), then beat Cuba 7-2 to clinch first place in the pool with a 3-1 record. Canada's 1.50 team ERA in pool play was the best of any team; the staff is deep and experienced. Josh Naylor (Seattle Mariners, 2024 All-Star) is the captain and middle-of-the-order anchor; Tyler O'Neill (Baltimore Orioles, two-time Gold Glove) provides power and defense. Owen Caissie has been clutch—.500 in pool play with the homer against Colombia and key hits vs. Panama. Michael Soroka (Arizona Diamondbacks) is healthy for his first WBC and will start the quarterfinal; Jameson Taillon, James Paxton, and Cal Quantrill give manager Ernie Whitt (in his sixth consecutive WBC) plenty of options. This is widely considered Canada's most talented WBC roster ever, with 21 of 30 players with MLB experience; they are playing with confidence and nothing to lose against the star-studded Americans.
Key Matchups and Storylines
Webb vs. Naylor and the Canadian heart of the order: Logan Webb will need to keep the ball down and avoid the big inning. Canada does not have the same depth of star power as the USA, but Naylor, O'Neill, Caissie, and Freddie Freeman (if on roster) can punish mistakes. Webb's sinker and changeup will be critical.
Soroka vs. Judge, Harper, Goldschmidt: Soroka has battled injuries for years but is a proven frontline arm when healthy. How he navigates the first time through the USA order—and whether he can limit damage from Judge and Harper—will set the tone. The USA will try to work counts and get into Canada's bullpen early.
Bullpens: Both teams have used their pens heavily in pool play. Whichever side gets more length from its starter and has the fresher arms in the late innings may have the edge. The USA's depth of high-leverage arms (and Kershaw available for a spot) is a factor, but Canada's staff has been excellent so far.
North American bragging rights: This is the first WBC quarterfinal between the USA and Canada. The Americans are favored, but Canada has already made history by winning the pool; they will play loose and aggressive. The USA will be under pressure to avoid another upset after the Italy loss.
Players to Watch
USA: Aaron Judge (Yankees, captain) and Bryce Harper are the lineup anchors; Paul Goldschmidt (2022 NL MVP) adds another middle-of-the-order threat. Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson, and Corbin Carroll provide speed and power. Logan Webb will start and need to work deep; Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal (2025 Cy Young winners) are available in relief or for a potential semifinal. Cal Raleigh and Will Smith handle catching and add pop.
Canada: Josh Naylor (Mariners, 2024 All-Star) is the captain and cleanup presence. Tyler O'Neill (Orioles, two-time Gold Glove) brings power and defense. Owen Caissie (Marlins prospect) has been clutch in pool play with a homer and key hits. Michael Soroka (D-backs) gets the start—healthy and "relentless" per Naylor; Jameson Taillon, James Paxton, and Cal Quantrill give Ernie Whitt depth. Canada's 1.50 team ERA in pool play shows the staff is for real.
What It Means for AthX
WBC performance does not affect dynamic pricing—AthX prices are driven by MLB performance. Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper, Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson, Corbin Carroll, Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, Logan Webb, Josh Naylor, Tyler O'Neill, and Michael Soroka are all key names on AthX. A deep run for either nation will keep these players in the spotlight; use the marketplace to track how they're valued heading into Opening Day.
*Sources: CBS Sports – Team USA will face Canada in quarterfinals; Yahoo Sports – WBC live updates; Baseball Canada – 2026 WBC roster; MLB.com – Team USA rotation. Fact-checked March 12, 2026.*